- The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in Wednesday trading. In market lingo, that’s known as an “inverted yield curve,” and it’s had a sterling prediction record.
- While there’s no certainty that growth will turn negative this time around, investors worry that expected growth from an ambitious agenda under President Donald Trump may not happen.
- Yield curve inversions have had a strong but not perfect forecasting history. In fact, the previous inversion happened in October 2022, and there’s still been no recession, 2½ years later.
An ominous measure that the Federal Reserve considers a near surefire recession signal again has reared its head in the bond market.
The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in trading Wednesday. In market lingo, that’s known as an “inverted yield curve,” and it’s had a sterling prediction record over a 12- to 18-month timeframe for downturns going back decades.
In fact, the New York Fed considers it such a reliable indicator that it offers monthly updates on the relationship along with percentage odds on a recession occurring over the next 12 months.
At the end of January, when the 10-year yield was about 0.31 percentage point clear of the 3-month, the probability was just 23%. However, that is almost certain to change as the relationship has shifted dramatically in February. The reason the move is considered a recession indicator is the expectation that the Fed will cut short-term rates in response to an economic retreat in the future.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/26/federal-reserves-favorite-recession-indicator-is-flashing-danger-again.html