One person’s pessimism is another’s pragmatism.
As a tough first quarter skids to a close, a crucial market debate is whether the recent mass outbreak of gloom is an overreaction to ambiguous economic and market signals, or simply a clear-eyed recognition that real-world conditions are souring fast.
For anyone who has been around markets long enough, it’s tempting to view the societal foul mood evident in surveys as overdone relative to the damage done so far to stock prices or the real economy.
Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel points out that the Conference Board’s polls of both consumers and CEOs are “nearing pandemic levels of pessimism.”
The most widely tracked weekly survey of individual investors, by AAII, has logged more than 50% bears for five straight weeks, something only ever seen near the depths of raging market routs. All this, with unemployment at a slim 4.1%, the S&P 500 a mere 9% off an all-time peak and corporate profits still growing.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/29/wall-street-cant-decide-if-the-extreme-pessimism-in-markets-is-warranted.html