Almost three quarters of the oil that has become gridlocked amid an ongoing stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz is being replaced by flow from the United States and China, helping cushion a devastating supply crunch and leading to fears that the full brunt of the shock could still be on its way.
Investors and commodity strategists are increasingly worried that – if the conflict stretches on – some of this extra supply will ebb. Morgan Stanley commodities strategist Martijn Rats estimated 75 per cent of the estimated 12.3 million barrels lost each day due to the war has been offset by a ramp-up in exports out of the US and declining imports into China.
Source: https://www.afr.com/markets/commodities/here-s-why-oil-prices-haven-t-exploded-and-it-s-not-the-ceasefire-20260513-p5zw8k