Australian shares are set to edge lower. Shares in New York were modestly lower to start the week with a key focus on Wednesday’s July consumer price report, and whether it moves bets on near-time interest rate moves.
ASX 200 futures were down 3 points to 9178. The S&P 500 closed 0.1 per cent lower.
“The market’s ability to hold at these levels suggests that buyers continue to dominate for now,” Antonio Di Giacomo, senior market analyst at XS.com, said in a note.
Still, there’s a heightening debate over whether investors should retain positions or pull out some profits.
Warren Pies at 3Fourteen Research said he’s recommending investors pare back both their equity and commodity allocations and lift their cash holdings. Among the reasons for his shift: “A September rate hike is now a coin flip. Given the deteriorating labour market, this would be a policy mistake and is underpriced by the market.”
Pies recommends an equity allocation of 55 per cent instead of 60 per cent, a commodity allocation of 10 per cent from 15 per cent. He lifted his cash call to 10 per cent from zero.
While the S&P 500 impressively reset its record high last week, Pies said: “these type of moves generally fade over the next month and have subpar forward returns over the next three months. At minimum, a consolidation period is the base case going forward.”
Source: https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-to-slip-rba-interest-rate-decision-awaited-20260811-p60n48