- Blowout earnings from Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Valero Energy this past week showed how the U.S.-Iran war created massive short-term profits in oil.
- ETFs targeting oil refiners and crude oil price volatility were among big winners over the past six months.
- But investing experts caution that geopolitics is a risky trade to bank on and for long-term investors there are other energy themes to consider.
The past week’s earnings from the energy sector demonstrated just how much the U.S.-Iran war has contributed to the short-term performance of major players in the oil market — and to the portfolio gains of investors who targeted stock opportunities in the sector. The sums are massive, but sitting on those gains for too long could be a mistake, according to investing experts.
ExxonMobil and Chevron reported quarterly profits on Friday that surged due to the war’s impact on oil prices, with Exxon’s profits doubling year-over-year to $14.5 billion and Chevron’s net income increasing close to 400%.
“We’re kind of firing on all cylinders, which is good, because the world needs it,” CEO Mike Wirth told CNBC’s Becky Quick on Friday.
From April through June, U.S. crude oil futures averaged over $92, a quarterly increase of 27%.
The action in refiners has been even stronger. Valero Energy’s earnings were up over 400% for the quarter compared to last year in world that Valero estimates is still five million barrels short per day of global refining capacity and over 100 million barrels short of oil inventories. Chevron’s refining segment saw profits jump 500% amid the rise in gasoline and diesel prices.
An energy market driven by geopolitics — not only the war in the Middle East but also between Russian and Ukraine — has attracted money into oil and oil industry-related ETFs, and it has created big winners along the way. But oil prices have been turbulent this year, particularly since the on-again, off-again war in Iran started. Since early March, the price of a barrel of oil peaked at nearly $120, dipped as low as $72, and seesawed — sometimes daily — within that range.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/02/oil-prices-iran-war-energy-market.html