Odds of a government shutdown rise to 70% in prediction markets

• Prediction markets are pricing in about a 70% chance that the federal government will shut down on Wednesday.
• Users on Kalshi and Polymarket increased their bets after the Labor Department said it won’t release Friday’s key jobs report, watched closely on Wall Street, in the event of a shutdown.

Prediction markets are pricing in about a 70% chance the federal government will shut down on Wednesday, reflecting growing skepticism that lawmakers will strike a last-minute deal to keep agencies funded.

Users on Kalshi and Polymarket increased their bets on a government closure after the Labor Department said it won’t release Friday’s key jobs report, watched closely on Wall Street, in case of a shutdown. Over the weekend, the odds were at around 50%.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/29/odds-of-a-government-shutdown-rise-to-70percent-in-prediction-markets.html