Recession odds climb on Wall Street as economy shows cracks beneath the surface

• Economists have pulled up their risk assessments of a U.S. contraction amid heightened uncertainty over geopolitical risk and a labor market that for the past year has shown strains.
• “I’m concerned recession risks are uncomfortably high and on the rise,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Recession is a real threat here.”
• Twin concerns about growth and unemployment have triggered talk of stagflation, a characterization that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has rejected.
• But the threat of a prolonged war, pressure on consumers and a labor market that, outside of health care, lost hundreds of thousands of jobs last year has kept concerns elevated.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/recession-odds-climb-on-wall-street-as-economy-shows-cracks-beneath-the-surface.html