When it comes to projecting a year ahead for stocks, all the probabilities and most of the incentives rest with the bulls.
The S&P 500 has been positive in three-quarters of all calendar years since 1958, when the index was created in its modern form. The market has gained at least 20% in more years (19) than it has fallen by any amount at all (17).
On top of these favorable generic odds, current conditions are serving up few reasons to overthink the default stance of bland bullishness. A bull market has been underway for 38 months and the uptrend prevails; consensus earnings forecasts promise a double-digit rise next year; and the Federal Reserve’s next move likely lower even after 1.75 percentage points of cuts over the past 15 months.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/20/mike-santoli-three-key-questions-for-wall-street-entering-2026.html