Washington | US President Donald Trump last month described the leaders of Iran as pragmatic, rational and smart people, but now he says they are sick, vicious and violent.
The change of heart about his foes in Tehran, Trump says, came because he “got to know them”, but foreign policy and defence scholars say no one should be surprised.
Renewed fighting in the Middle East this week is the utterly predictable outcome of a rushed truce, and shows just how serious Iran is about maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz.
As the fragile deal unravels, analysts say sporadic airstrikes, or worse, will continue for the rest of the year as both sides use force as a negotiating tactic.
“This flare-up is the almost inevitable consequence of the vagueness that was built into the MOU [memorandum of understanding] between the US and Iran,” says Will Todman, a senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
“It kicked all of the most difficult issues down the road, including who actually controls the Strait of Hormuz, what happens in Lebanon, and then, of course, the nuclear negotiations themselves.”
It is the first of those three issues that has proved immediately critical.
The MOU, struck on June 15 and signed days later, was a 60-day interim deal in which the US lifted its naval blockade on the strait and Iran agreed to allow toll-free passage through the waterway in which one-fifth of the world’s oil was shipped before the war.
roke down completely this week after Iran launched missile attacks on tankers carrying oil and gas, triggering a heavy US response, then further retaliations from Iran targeting US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
In Europe on Wednesday (Thursday AEST), Trump warned more bombs would fall, sending markets into a spin.
Iran was angered by Western and Gulf attempts to undermine its leverage over the strait by sailing close to the Omani coast, where US warplanes can provide cover.
Trump wants ships moving quickly again so that energy prices ease, but Iran does not want to completely cede control and has designs on charging a toll in future.
“They’re really keen to show that there are costs to trying to deny their control over Hormuz, because they think this is now in many ways greater leverage than the nuclear program,” says Todman.
“There’s no guarantee that a pressure campaign against Iran would result in any different outcome this time than it did previously.”
— Will Todman, Centre for Strategic and International Studies
Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at think tank Defence Priorities, says Iran sees the strait as “the most powerful thing they have right now to determine the future of the conflict, as well as to secure their economic future”.
“Their path to a nuclear bomb is difficult. The strait is something they have right now,” she says.
“If they can keep the strait as a piece of leverage, they don’t have to build a nuclear bomb.”
The waterway is just 34 kilometres across at its narrowest point, meaning it has always been a concerning choke point in the global economy. But Iran had never closed it until the US and Israel launched their military campaign on February 28.
Todman says Tehran could have pulled that lever at any time, but always thought it would spark a heavy and internationally co-ordinated reaction, either militarily, economically or both.
But this is a moment of increasing global disorder. Having spent much of his presidential term berating allies over their military efforts and battering them with tariffs, none rode to Trump’s aid after the war began.
And in April, Russian and Chinese vetoes of a United Nations Security Council resolution to break the blockade only emboldened Iran further, says Todman.
What happens next depends on what Trump wants, he says. If the president wants Iran to relinquish all control over the strait and return to the status quo before the war, it will require “a large escalation … with quite uncertain results”.
“There’s no guarantee that a pressure campaign against Iran would result in any different outcome this time than it did previously,” says Todman.
A more durable ceasefire probably requires the US to allow Iran to retain some control over the strait, he says.
That would disappoint the Gulf states but, just as they have been prepared to discuss investing in Iran’s rehabilitation after it attacked them, “they’re prepared to take pragmatic decisions that are in their own economic interests and security interests as well”.
Kavanagh says Trump does not have the patience for diplomacy, and so expects that Iran and the US will engage in “negotiations punctuated by spasms of violence” for at least the rest of the year.
“The only possible silver lining is the longer this goes on, the more countries in the region and the broader global community start to diversify away from the Strait of Hormuz,” she says.
“Iran faces a challenge of playing the Hormuz card, but not playing it too much … It does have a shelf life.”
Source: https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/trump-is-being-schooled-about-leverage-as-iran-deal-unravels-20260709-p60dt7